So far in our speculations about the Fermi Paradox, uncertainty in calculating the Drake Equation has led us to a broad range, with N = [0.84-16.03] * f_i * f_c * L. Despite the uncertainty, we concluded that relatively high values of f_i (the fraction of life-bearing worlds that give rise to intelligence), f_c (the […]
After one of my predictions came true, I got to thinking about my other comments in that predictions post. Recent events have led me to reconsider them. Here’s my update: Samuel R. Delany wins in 2014 Larry Niven will never win As a huge fan of Niven growing up, it pains me to write that.
SFWA Grand Master predictions update Read More »
This has been the toughest post in the Fermi Paradox series to write, because the question of how life arose is the most open. A look at the linked article will show a lot of different conjectures. Which one(s) explain how life actually arose on Earth and/or would arise on other planets are still unknown.
The Fermi Paradox and the Drake Equation – Fraction of Planets Where Life Arises Read More »
As we discussed in the Fermi Paradox series so far (posts 1, 2, and 3), the Drake Equation gives an estimate of the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible, N. After entering the first two values, we have: N = 5.625 * n_e * f_l * f_i * f_c
The Fermi Paradox and the Drake Equation – Planets Potentially Supporting Life Read More »
As reported elsewhere, Gene Wolfe, author of the Fifth Head of Cerebus, the four-volume Book of the New Sun, and numerous other works of complex, erudite science fiction and fantasy, was named this year’s recipient of the Damon Knight Memorial Grand Master Award by SFWA. This is seriously cool news for a number of reasons:
Gene Wolfe, science fiction grand master Read More »
I was recently interviewed by British sf/f writer Patrick Samphire here. We talk about inspirations for Take the Shilling, independent publishing, the SF I read at age 12, the five SF books every fan should read, and more.
Interviewed by Patrick Samphire Read More »
As we discussed in the Fermi Paradox series so far (1 2), the Drake Equation gives an estimate of the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible, N, as: N = 6.25 * f_p * n_e * f_l * f_i * f_c * L Today, we’ll talk about the second
The Fermi Paradox and the Drake Equation – Stars with Planets Read More »
As we discussed in the last post, using the Drake Equation as a way of thinking about the Fermi Paradox, an estimate of the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible, N, is given by: N = R * f_p * n_e * f_l * f_i * f_c * L
The Fermi Paradox and the Drake Equation – Star Formation Read More »
John Cooper Fitch died yesterday. I had never heard of Mr. Fitch either–he was a race driver most active in the 1950s–but you probably see his work every time you travel the freeway: He invented the system of sand-filled plastic barrels you see at bridge pillars and the end of jersey barriers facing oncoming traffic
John Cooper Fitch, 1917-2012 Read More »
Enrico Fermi was various kinds of brilliant. His estimate of the yield of the Trinity nuclear test by measuring the displacement of confetti by the shock wave is surprisingly accurate. In science fiction circles, of course, he is best known for the Fermi Paradox. The Fermi Paradox, for those unfamiliar with it, can be stated
The Fermi Paradox and the Drake Equation – Intro Read More »
