Almost seven years ago, just before the Super Bowl in February 2019, I posted The Dallas Cowboys – Your 2025 USFL Champions. That post was based on cliodynamics, theories of historical processes. Asimov fans will recall the science of psychohistory as depicted in the Foundation series. While Asimov’s take was simplistic, we’re getting there – look at work by the current world expert in this field, Peter Turchin.
“If something can’t go on forever, it will stop”
The premise of my February 2019 post was the NFL’s Golden Age, of per team average revenue growth of 9% per year, could not continue indefinitely. When the pie stopped growing, or started shrinking, the haves and the have-nots would fight. Picture a decline-of-Rome dynamic. When elites must divide a shrinking pie, they scheme to carve off a bigger slice at the expense of the others. This tendency is compounded when the elites who worked together to make that Golden Age happen die off. Heirs raised in the lap of luxury expect the easy money to keep rolling in. (FYI, among owners of richer NFL teams, Jerry Jones and Robert Kraft are both over 80).
I envisioned a crisis point: a group of 6-8 prosperous-team owners gives the NFL an ultimatum. Reconfigure TV revenue in their favor, or they walk and form a new pro league.
“Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”
I asked you to check back with me in fall ‘25 to see how close this prediction is to reality. Clearly, it isn’t. NFL revenue growth has slowed since 2019 (up only 7.3% year-over-year). Maybe fan bases are still growing. Note the increased number of Europe games and the Chiefs vs. Chargers opener in Sao Paulo this season. Or, existing fan bases are getting mined for more revenue. We’ll see how long that can last.
Though one good thing came out of my 2019 prediction. Instead of predicting the future, I was able to prevent it. I mean, no one could seriously believe the Dallas Cowboys would be any league’s champions…